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№ 3/2020
1ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
Трансформація індустрії фінансових послуг під впливом фінтеху: глобальний та регіональний виміри
Economy and forecasting 2020; 3:34-46 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2020.03.034 |
АНОТАЦІЯ ▼
Дано визначення поняття "фінтех" як інноваційної галузі та як фінансового продукту. Узагальнено процеси та можливості використання інноваційних технологій, – зокрема блокчейну, штучного інтелекту, Big Data, хмарних технологій, штучних нейронних мереж, технологій машинного навчання – для індустрії фінансових послуг. Визначено перспективність застосування таких інноваційних технологій для розширення кредитування, зменшення кредитних, інвестиційних та інших ризиків, персоналізації фінансових пропозицій для клієнта, трейдингу, грошових переказів, страхового бізнесу та ін.
Проаналізовано світові інвестиції в фінтех у період з 2013 р. по 2019 р. Зроблено висновок про збільшення загальних обсягів інвестицій та зростання середньої вартості однієї угоди за останні два роки. Проаналізовано застосування фінтеху для локальних ринків та у різних сферах індустрії фінансових послуг, зокрема інвестиції в InsurTech.
Розкрито можливості впровадження фінтеху в регіональному розрізі. Зроблено висновок про зростання охоплення фінтех-послугами населення країн, де традиційний ринок фінансових послуг є менш розвиненим. Країнам із розвиненим фінансовим ринком притаманний консервативний підхід та відставання у впровадженні фінансових технологій. При цьому зазначено високий рівень концентрації інвестицій саме на розвинених ринках.
Зроблено висновок про перспективність упровадження діджиталізації у фінансовій та інших галузях в Україні, зокрема це стосується безготівкових розрахунків страхових компаній, грошових переказів та послуг, що пов'язані з RegTech. Виділено пріоритети розвитку фінтеху в Україні в частині підвищення цифрової грамотності, кешлес-економіки, розвитку фінтех-екосистем.
Розглянуто позитивний та негативний ефекти від впровадження фінтеху. Підкреслено, що проблеми, які потребують вирішення, стосуються ризиків, пов'язаних із персональною безпекою, втручанням в особисте життя, втратою персональних даних, кібербезпекою, скороченням робочих місць тощо.
Публікацію підготовлено в рамках планової НДР відділу грошово-кредитних відносин ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України" "Індустрія фінансових послуг в умовах «нової нормальності»" (№ держреєстрації 0118U003065).
Ключові слова:фінтех, інвестиції, цифрові технології, індустрія фінансових послуг, діджиталізація, штучний інтелект, блокчейн, хмарні технології
Стаття англійською мовою (cтор. 34 - 46) | Завантажити | Завантажень : 403 |
СПИСОК ЛІТЕРАТУРИ ▼
2. Ckinner, Chris (2017). 11 FinTech trends you need to follow. Retrived from thefinanser.com/2017/01/11-fintech-trends-need-follow.html/
3. Hill, John (2018). Fintech and the Remaking of Financial Institutions. Elsevier Science. doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-813497-9.00004-4
4. Chishti, Susanne, Barberis, Janos (2016). The FINTECH Book. The Financial Technology Handbook for Investors, Entrepreneurs and Visionaries. doi.org/ 10.1002/9781119218906
5. Deloitte (2019). Change The Way You Change How can banks stay ahead of the curve? Retrived from www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/technology /Cloud%20for%20Banks_v1_3.pdf
6. KPMG (2020). KPMG Global fintech. Share An overview of KPMG solutions, services and strategies for fintech. Retrived from home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2016/02/ kpmg-global-fintech-fs.html
7. EY (2019). Global FinTech Adoption Index. Retrived from www.ey.com/en_gl/ey-global-fintech-adoption-index
8. PwC (2016). Blurred lines: How FinTech is shaping financial services. Retrived from www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/financial-services/fintech-survey/blurred-lines.html
9. Temirkhanova, M.T., Rudskaya, I.A. (2018). Innovative financial technologies: the russian experience and prospects of development fundamental. RESEARCH, 8 (111) [in Russia].
10. Global Fintech Fundraising Fell in First Half of 2019, with Decline in China Offsetting Gains in the US and Europe. Accenture Analysis Finds. Retrived from newsroom.accenture.com/news/global-fintech-fundraising-fell-in-first-half-of-2019-with-decline-in-china-offsetting-gains-in-the-us-and-europe-accenture-analysis-finds.htm
11. Shapoval, Ju. (2020). Use of cloud technologies in activities banks. Іntеrnаukа, 88-91 [in Ukrainian].
12. The Pulse of Fintech H1. Retrived from home.kpmg/ua/uk/ home/insights/ 2019/08/pulse-of-fintech-h1-2019.html
13. The Pulse of Fintech 2018. Retrived from assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/ xx/pdf/2019/02/the-pulse-of-fintech-2018.pdf
14. The Pulse of Fintech H2. Retrived from home.kpmg/ua/uk/home/insights/2019/08/pulse-of-fintech-h2-2019.html
15. Engert O., Flötotto M., O'Connell S., Seth I., Williams Z. (2019). Realizing M&A value creation in US banking and fintech: Nine steps for success. Retrived from www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/banking-matters/realizing-m-and-a-value-creation-in-us-banking-and-fintech-nine-steps-for-success
16. EY (2017). Global FinTech 2017. Retrived from www.ey.com/en_gl/ey-global-fintech-adoption-index
17. Using fintech to democratize financial services (2017). Retrived from www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/using-fintech-to-democratize-financial-services
18. KPMG (Archive). Retrived from home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2020/02/pulse-of-fintech-archive.html
19. The Future of Financial Services (2019). Retrived from www.willistowerswatson.com/en-US/Insights/trending-topics/future-of-financial-services
20. Fintech market of Ukraine: online lending (2019). Retrived from psm7.com/fintech/fintex-rynok-ukrainy-onlajn-kreditovanie.html [in Ukrainian].
21. Financial inclusion, innovation and non-cash operations in Ukraine - priorities of FinTech 2025 Development Strategy (2020). Retrived from bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/strategiya-rozvitku-fintehu-v-ukrayini-do-2025-roku--kurs-na-staliy-rozvitok-innovatsiy-keshles-ta-finansovu-gramotnist [in Ukrainian].
№ 2/2022
БУБЛИК Євген Олександрович1, БРУС Світлана Іванівна2, ШПАНЕЛЬ-ЮХТА Олексій Ігорович3
1ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
2ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
3ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
PROSPECTS AND OBSTACLES TO THE RESTRUCTURING OF UKRAINE’S EXTERNAL STATE OBLIGATIONS IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR
Economy and forecasting 2022; 2:5-24 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.02.005 |
АНОТАЦІЯ ▼
The article analyzes the structure of Ukraine’s external debt liabilities for the period from 2011 to 2021 and in the period since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. It is determined that the amount of state external liabilities, taking into account projected data, may exceed 70% of this country’s GDP, which will become the dominant form of both attracting financial resources to the state budget and threatening the state security.
The authors provide an assessment of the difficulties of restructuring the external debt in terms of the specific weight of the creditor and the weight of short-term payments for the period 2022-2023. It is concluded that at the beginning of 2022, the largest specific weight in the structure of external liabilities was the debt for issued securities for foreign markets and liabilities to international financial organizations and the EU. The main payments for them fall on the third quarters of 2022 and 2023 (3.0 and 3.6 billion USD, respectively), and the payment of interest accounts for 30% of total.
The article considers possible mechanisms of write-off and restructuring of the state's external debts, taking into account international experience and with regard to the crises and military conflicts. The following mechanisms for write-off and restructuring of foreign debt are analyzed: Brady Plan for debt restructuring of developing countries; and debt relief programs for the poorest countries - HIPC (heavily indebted poor countries) and MDRI (The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative).
The authors identify the guidelines of work on minimizing Ukraine's external liabilities in 2022-2023. A conclusion is made regarding the initiation of negotiations on the restructuring and write-off of the external debt burden to ease the payments on external debts, including GDP warrants. Such a task should be carried out as soon as possible before the period of the largest payments and taking into account the existing support of the governments of leading foreign countries.
Ключові слова:public debt, government’s external debt liabilities, GDP-warrants, restructuring and write-off of external debt, external state loans
Стаття англійською мовою (cтор. 5 - 24) | Завантажити | Завантажень : 42 |
СПИСОК ЛІТЕРАТУРИ ▼
2. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Rogoff, Kenneth S. (2010). Growth in a Time of Debt. American Economic Review, 100 (2): 573-78. doi.org/10.3386/w15639
3. Kose, M. A., Ohnsorge, F. L., Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2021, Sept.). The aftermath of debt surges. doi.org/10.3386/w29266
4. Roubini, Nouriel (2021, Jun. 30). The Looming Stagflationary Debt Crisis. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stagflation-debt-crisis-2020s-by-nouriel-roubini-2021-06?barrier=accesspaylog
5. Koziuk, V. (2012). The Optimal Level of Debt Burden: Global Macro-Financial Shifts and Transient Expectations. Finansy Ukrainy – Finances of Ukraine, 1, 78-93 [in Ukrainian].
6. Bohdan, T. (2020). Debt capital flows and the spread of shocks in an emerging market economy (the example of Ukraine). Zhurnal ievropejs'koi ekonomiky – Journal of European Economy, 19: 1, 123-150 [in Ukrainian].
7. Sidenko, V., Yurchishin, V., Markevich, K. (2015). Debts: a time to take and a time to give. Global trends and challenges for Ukraine. Analytical report. Kyiv: Zapovit [in Ukrainian].
8. Londar, S., Kuznietsov, K., Vereshchaka, I. (2016). The impact of the restructuring of external debt obligations to private creditors on the debt sustainability of Ukraine. Finansy Ukrainy – Finances of Ukraine, 1, 39-56 [in Ukrainian].
9. Pynzenyk, V. (2017). Public Debt Restructuring: Models for Assessing Payments for Value Recovery Instruments. Naukovi zapysky NaUKMA. Ekonomichni nauky – Scientific notes of NaUKMA. Economic sciences, 2: 1, 110-115. doi.org/10.18523/2519-4739212017119820 [in Ukrainian].
10. Lynina, I.O. (2020). Public Finance in Macroeconomic Growth Policy.Institute for economics and forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Кyiv [in Ukrainian].
11. Help Ukraine, cancel its foreign debt (2022, March 10). Spil'ne – Common. Retrieved from commons.com.ua/uk/help-ukraine-cancel-its-foreign-debt/ [in Ukrainian].
12. World Bank (2022). Finance For An Equitable Recovery. World development report. Retrieved from www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2022
13. Development strategies in a globalized world: Multilateral processes for managing sovereign external debt (2015). Note by the UNCTAD secretariat. Retrieved from unctad.org/system/files/official-document/tdb62d7_en.pdf
14. Greece and Spain saved post-war Germany. And what does she do with her saviors today? (2013). Retrieved from ipress.ua/mainmedia/gretsiya_ta_ispaniya_vryatuvaly_pislyavoiennu_nimechchynu_a_shcho_robyt_vona_zi_svoimy_ryativnykamy_sogodni_16365.html
15. Buckley, Ross P. (1997). The Facilitation of the Brady Plan: Emerging Markets Debt Trading From 1989 to 1993. Fordham International Law Journal. The Berkeley Electronic Press (bepress). Retrieved from ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/ilj
16. IMF (2021, March 23). Debt Relief Under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. Retrieved from www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/01/16/11/Debt-Relief-Under-the-Heavily-Indebted-Poor-Countries-Initiative
17. Deutsch Bank Market Research (2015, October 9). Analyst Reports: "Ukraine – Pricing the GDP Warrants", 16 September 2015; "Ukraine: Pricing GDP Warrants, Part II – Discounting the Cash Flows". Retrieved from www.weil.com/~/media/files/pdfs/2015/ukraine-sovereign-restructuring.pdf.
18. IMF (2020, November). The Role of State-Contingent Debt Instruments in Sovereign Debt Restructurings. Retrieved from www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2020/11/13/The-Role-of-State-Contingent-Debt-Instruments-in-Sovereign-Debt-Restructurings-49732
№ 4/2022
БРУС Світлана Іванівна1, ДРОБЯЗКО Анатолій Олександрович2
1ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
2Academy of Financial Management, Ministry of Finances of Ukraine
Factors of monetary and credit policy: world and Ukraine in the conditions of military aggression
Economy and forecasting 2022; 4:94-107 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.04.094 |
АНОТАЦІЯ ▼
Starting with the global pandemic crisis, whose consequences included the disruption of logistics chains and the suspension in a number of economic sectors, the world economy is experiencing increasingly large losses. Full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation by many countries have made the global economy even more unstable and problematic. Macroeconomic problems are accumulating in the world, which will be a long term trend.
The article deals with Ukraine’s domestic financial and monetary sphere since the beginning of Russian aggression in 2014 and in the context of the post-pandemic global crisis. In the first months of the war, Ukraine – being a small open commodity based economy – managed to maintain the stability of money circulation and prevented panic in the financial markets, in contrast to 1998, 2008 and 2014.
The full-scale war continued the economic crisis initiated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The interaction of the two crises deepens imbalances in both the global and Ukrainian economic and financial systems. As manifestations of the crisis, the article examines the disrupted supply chains of goods and raw materials, and the negative impact on the companies' solvency due to reduced demand. On the other hand, with their financial injections, the governments prevent the rapid bankruptcy of unviable firms in order to preserve employment, which exposes the economy to new risks.
The article outlines expected developments in Ukraine’s financial system due to long war and the ensuing macroeconomic losses and uncertainty. Recommendations are given on urgent measures to support the banking sector in order to increase its liquidity and solvency under the conditions shaped in 2022.
The authors note that in the fight against inflation, it is necessary to take into account the increased energy prices, the disrupted logistics chains for commodity producers, the decreased export revenue, and the increased prices for critical imported goods. Anti-inflationary measures under such conditions could lead to stagnation and phase out domestic production.
Ключові слова:monetary policy, exchange rate policy, economic reforms
Стаття англійською мовою (cтор. 94 - 107) | Завантажити | Завантажень : 52 |
СПИСОК ЛІТЕРАТУРИ ▼
2. Riley, Charles (2020, February 25). Coronavirus is Fast Becoming an ‘Economic Pandemic'. CNN Business. Retrieved from edition.cnn.com/2020/02/24/business/coronavirus-global-economy/index.html
3. Papava, Vladimer (2020). On the Atypical Economic Crisis under the COVID-19 Pandemic. Economics and Business, 4, 4-16. Retrieved from eb.tsu.ge/?cat=nomer&leng=eng&adgi=1056&title=On%20the%20Atypical%20Economic%20Crisis%20%20under%20the%20COVID-19%20Pandemic
4. Boon, Gert-Jan (2020, May 12). Amending Insolvency Legislation in Response to the COVID-19 Crisis. Harvard Law School Bankruptcy Roundtable. Retrieved from blogs.harvard.edu/bankruptcyroundtable/2020/05/12/ amending-insolvency-legislation-in-response-to-the-covid-19-crisis
5. Stiglitz, Joseph E. (2020, July 1). Priorities for the COVID-19 Economy. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
6. Stiglitz, Joseph E. (2021, June 7). The Inflation Red Herring. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/chazen-global-insights/getting-finance-climate-improvement
7. Sachs, Jeffrey (2021, November 13). US Can Fight Inflation and Still ‘Build Back Better'. CNN. Retrieved from edition.cnn.com/2021/11/13/opinions/us-can-fight-inflation-build-back-better-sachs/index.html
8. Rodrik, Dani (2022, January 11). Inflation Heresies. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.jordantimes.com/opinion/dani-rodrik/inflation-heresies
9. Pride, Jason D., Reynolds, Michael T., and Vovk, Ilona V. (2022, January 10). Supply-Chainflation. Glenmede. Retrieved from www.glenmede.com/wpcontent/uploads/2022/01/Investment-Strategy-Notes-01-10-22.pdf
10. Marin, Dalia (2021, November 2). Will Deglobalization Fuel Inflation? Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/dalia-marin
11. Roach, Stephen S. (2022, January 24). The Fed Is Playing with Fire. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/stephen-s-roach
12. Rogoff, Kenneth (2021, March 1). Are Inflation Fears Justified? Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/bigpicture/is-inflation-alive?barrier=accesspaylog
13. Spence, Michael (2022, January 14). Regime Change in the Global Economy. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/michael-spence
14. WHO (2020, March 11). WHO Director-General’s Opening Remarks at the Media Brieting on COVID-19. Retrieved from www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-brieting-on-covid-19---11-march-2020
15. IMF (2020, April 10). Policy Responses to COVID-19. Retrieved from www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19#U
16. Galbraith, James K. (2021, November 19). Whipping Up America’s Inflation Bogeyman. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/inflation-not-macroeconomic-problem-for-fed-by-james-k-galbraith-2021-11
17. Drobiazko, A.O. Liubich, O.O., Olijnyk, D.I. (2022). Optimizing the business models of state-owned banks under the conditions of increased requirements for financial security in 2022. Finansy Ukrainy – Finance of Ukraine, 1, 74-89. doi.org/10.33763/finukr2022.01.074.
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19. Danylyshyn, B. (2022, October). Raising the discount rate to 25%: did the decision meet the expectations? Ekonomichna pravda – Economic truth. Retrieved from www.epravda.com.ua/columns/2022/10/20/692834/
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