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| НА ГОЛОВНУ | |
№ 1/2020
1ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
| Economy and forecasting 2020; 1:124-138 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2020.01.124 |
АНОТАЦІЯ ▼
Ключові слова:
| Стаття англійською мовою (cтор. 124 - 138) | Завантажити | Завантажень : 328 |
СПИСОК ЛІТЕРАТУРИ ▼
2. Grossman, G., Helpman, E. (2018). Growth, Trade, and Inequality. Econometrica, 86 (1),37-83. doi.org/10.3982/ECTA14518
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doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-1582 4. Gourinchas, P.O., & Jeanne, O. (2006). The elusive gains from international financial integration. The Review of Economic Studies, 73(3), 715-741.
doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2006.00393.x 5. Rodrik, D. (1998). Who needs capital-account convertibility? Essays in International Finance, 55-65.
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7. Koziuk, V. (2017). Monetary regimes and macro-financial vulnerability in commodity economies. Svit finansiv – The world of finance, 1, 58-73 [in Ukrainian].
8. Korablin, S. (2017). Macroeconomic dynamics of Ukraine: the trap of commodity markets. Institute for economics and forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
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13. Kose, M., Prasad, E., Rogoff, K., Wei, S. (2006). Financial globalization: a reappraisal. IMF Working Paper, WP/06/189. doi.org/10.5089/9781451864496.001
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15. Agénor, P.R. (2001). Benefits and costs of international financial integration: theory and facts. Policy Research Working Paper, WPS 2699. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-2699 16. Lucas, R.E. (1990). Why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries? The American Economic Review, 80(2), 92-96.
17. Masahiro, K., Urate, S. (1996). Trade Imbalances and Japanese Foreign Direct Investment: Bilateral and Triangular Issues. Discussion Paper Series. Institute of Social Science, University of Tokyo.
18. Alburo, F., Bautista, C. and Gochoco, M. (1992). Pacific Direct Investment Flows into ASEAN. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 8: 3, 284-308. doi.org/10.1355/AE8-3C 19. Damooei, J. and Tavakoli, A. (2006). The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment and Imports on Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis of Thailand and the Philippines (1970-1998).The Journal of Developing Areas, 39: 2, 79-100. doi.org/10.1353/jda. 2006.0002 20. Damgaard, J., Elkjaer, T., Johannesen, N. (2019). The Rise of Phantom Investments. Finance & Development, 56 (3). Retrieved from www.imf.org/ external/pubs/ft/fandd/2019/09/the-rise-of-phantom-FDI-in-tax-havens-damgaard.htm
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№ 2/2022
БУБЛИК Євген Олександрович1, БРУС Світлана Іванівна2, ШПАНЕЛЬ-ЮХТА Олексій Ігорович3
1ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
2ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
3ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
PROSPECTS AND OBSTACLES TO THE RESTRUCTURING OF UKRAINE’S EXTERNAL STATE OBLIGATIONS IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR
| Economy and forecasting 2022; 2:5-24 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.02.005 |
АНОТАЦІЯ ▼
The article analyzes the structure of Ukraine’s external debt liabilities for the period from 2011 to 2021 and in the period since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. It is determined that the amount of state external liabilities, taking into account projected data, may exceed 70% of this country’s GDP, which will become the dominant form of both attracting financial resources to the state budget and threatening the state security.
The authors provide an assessment of the difficulties of restructuring the external debt in terms of the specific weight of the creditor and the weight of short-term payments for the period 2022-2023. It is concluded that at the beginning of 2022, the largest specific weight in the structure of external liabilities was the debt for issued securities for foreign markets and liabilities to international financial organizations and the EU. The main payments for them fall on the third quarters of 2022 and 2023 (3.0 and 3.6 billion USD, respectively), and the payment of interest accounts for 30% of total.
The article considers possible mechanisms of write-off and restructuring of the state's external debts, taking into account international experience and with regard to the crises and military conflicts. The following mechanisms for write-off and restructuring of foreign debt are analyzed: Brady Plan for debt restructuring of developing countries; and debt relief programs for the poorest countries - HIPC (heavily indebted poor countries) and MDRI (The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative).
The authors identify the guidelines of work on minimizing Ukraine's external liabilities in 2022-2023. A conclusion is made regarding the initiation of negotiations on the restructuring and write-off of the external debt burden to ease the payments on external debts, including GDP warrants. Such a task should be carried out as soon as possible before the period of the largest payments and taking into account the existing support of the governments of leading foreign countries.
Ключові слова:public debt, government’s external debt liabilities, GDP-warrants, restructuring and write-off of external debt, external state loans
| Стаття англійською мовою (cтор. 5 - 24) | Завантажити | Завантажень : 41 |
СПИСОК ЛІТЕРАТУРИ ▼
2. Reinhart, Carmen M., and Rogoff, Kenneth S. (2010). Growth in a Time of Debt. American Economic Review, 100 (2): 573-78. doi.org/10.3386/w15639
3. Kose, M. A., Ohnsorge, F. L., Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2021, Sept.). The aftermath of debt surges. doi.org/10.3386/w29266
4. Roubini, Nouriel (2021, Jun. 30). The Looming Stagflationary Debt Crisis. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stagflation-debt-crisis-2020s-by-nouriel-roubini-2021-06?barrier=accesspaylog
5. Koziuk, V. (2012). The Optimal Level of Debt Burden: Global Macro-Financial Shifts and Transient Expectations. Finansy Ukrainy – Finances of Ukraine, 1, 78-93 [in Ukrainian].
6. Bohdan, T. (2020). Debt capital flows and the spread of shocks in an emerging market economy (the example of Ukraine). Zhurnal ievropejs'koi ekonomiky – Journal of European Economy, 19: 1, 123-150 [in Ukrainian].
7. Sidenko, V., Yurchishin, V., Markevich, K. (2015). Debts: a time to take and a time to give. Global trends and challenges for Ukraine. Analytical report. Kyiv: Zapovit [in Ukrainian].
8. Londar, S., Kuznietsov, K., Vereshchaka, I. (2016). The impact of the restructuring of external debt obligations to private creditors on the debt sustainability of Ukraine. Finansy Ukrainy – Finances of Ukraine, 1, 39-56 [in Ukrainian].
9. Pynzenyk, V. (2017). Public Debt Restructuring: Models for Assessing Payments for Value Recovery Instruments. Naukovi zapysky NaUKMA. Ekonomichni nauky – Scientific notes of NaUKMA. Economic sciences, 2: 1, 110-115. doi.org/10.18523/2519-4739212017119820 [in Ukrainian].
10. Lynina, I.O. (2020). Public Finance in Macroeconomic Growth Policy.Institute for economics and forecasting, NAS of Ukraine. Кyiv [in Ukrainian].
11. Help Ukraine, cancel its foreign debt (2022, March 10). Spil'ne – Common. Retrieved from commons.com.ua/uk/help-ukraine-cancel-its-foreign-debt/ [in Ukrainian].
12. World Bank (2022). Finance For An Equitable Recovery. World development report. Retrieved from www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2022
13. Development strategies in a globalized world: Multilateral processes for managing sovereign external debt (2015). Note by the UNCTAD secretariat. Retrieved from unctad.org/system/files/official-document/tdb62d7_en.pdf
14. Greece and Spain saved post-war Germany. And what does she do with her saviors today? (2013). Retrieved from ipress.ua/mainmedia/gretsiya_ta_ispaniya_vryatuvaly_pislyavoiennu_nimechchynu_a_shcho_robyt_vona_zi_svoimy_ryativnykamy_sogodni_16365.html
15. Buckley, Ross P. (1997). The Facilitation of the Brady Plan: Emerging Markets Debt Trading From 1989 to 1993. Fordham International Law Journal. The Berkeley Electronic Press (bepress). Retrieved from ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/ilj
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17. Deutsch Bank Market Research (2015, October 9). Analyst Reports: "Ukraine – Pricing the GDP Warrants", 16 September 2015; "Ukraine: Pricing GDP Warrants, Part II – Discounting the Cash Flows". Retrieved from www.weil.com/~/media/files/pdfs/2015/ukraine-sovereign-restructuring.pdf.
18. IMF (2020, November). The Role of State-Contingent Debt Instruments in Sovereign Debt Restructurings. Retrieved from www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2020/11/13/The-Role-of-State-Contingent-Debt-Instruments-in-Sovereign-Debt-Restructurings-49732
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