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№ 1/2020
ГАРКАВЕНКО Валентина Іванівна1, ЄРШОВА Галина Віталіївна2
1ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
2ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
Economy and forecasting 2020; 1:43-56 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2020.01.043 |
АНОТАЦІЯ ▼
Ключові слова:
Стаття англійською мовою (cтор. 43 - 56) | Завантажити | Завантажень : 407 |
СПИСОК ЛІТЕРАТУРИ ▼
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3. Lutsenko, I.S. (2013). Tax incentives for attracting foreign direct investment in Ukraine. Investytsiyi: praktyka ta informatsiya – Investment: practice and experience, 18, 9- 13 [in Ukrainian].
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№ 3/2020
ГАРКАВЕНКО Валентина Іванівна1, ЄРШОВА Галина Віталіївна2
1ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
2ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
Вплив валютної лібералізації на економіку України
Economy and forecasting 2020; 3:20-33 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2020.03.020 |
АНОТАЦІЯ ▼
Досліджуючи питання трансформації фінансових відносин в Україні, у попередній статті (Гаркавенко В.І., Єршова Г.В. Вплив іноземного капіталу на економічний розвиток України. Економіка і прогнозування. 2020. № 1. С. 47–62) автори здійснили аналіз впливу іноземного капіталу на економічний розвиток вітчизняної економіки та виявили, що його концентрація в окремих видах економічної діяльності призвела до закріплення сировинної спрямованості вітчизняної економіки, загострення внутрішньоекономічних проблем. Було зроблено висновок, що, зважаючи на деформовану модель економічного розвитку України, успішні практики розвинених країни щодо залучення іноземних інвестицій та реформування фінансового сектора малоефективні в умовах вітчизняної економіки. Продовжуючи дослідження трансформацій фінансових відносин в Україні, які відбуваються під впливом зближення вітчизняного законодавства із європейськими нормами, автори не мог-ли залишити осторонь питання впливу лібералізації валютного законодавства на економіку. Зважаючи на те, що валютна лібералізація істотно впливає на поведінку іноземних інвесторів, у статті проведено глибокий аналіз законодавчих змін у фінансовому секторі та охарактеризовано основні результати їх впровадження. Проаналізовано позитивні та негативні наслідки валютної лібералізації в Україні для суб?єктів господарювання та економіки загалом. Особливу увагу приділено ризикам лібералізації операцій, пов?язаних із рухом капіталу та поведінці нерезидентів на фінансовому ринку України. Зроблено висновок, що вітчизняна економіка, що має деформовану модель економічного розвитку, належить до фінансово та інституційно слабких держав, не готова до лібералізації валютних відносин, яка, в свою чергу, лише сприяє поглибленню деформацій в економіці та знижує її стійкість до макроекономічних дисбалансів.
Публікацію підготовлено за виконання НДР "Фінансові ризики ведення бізнесу в Україні: сектор нефінансових корпорацій" (№ держреєстрації 0118U006088).
Ключові слова:валютна лібералізація, ринок капіталу, валютне законодавство, політика Національного банку України
Стаття англійською мовою (cтор. 20 - 33) | Завантажити | Завантажень : 335 |
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№ 2/2021
ЗИМОВЕЦЬ Владислав Вікторович1, ЄРШОВА Галина Віталіївна2
1ДУ «Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України»
2ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
Economy and forecasting 2021; 2:60-73 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2021.02.060 |
АНОТАЦІЯ ▼
Ключові слова:
Стаття англійською мовою (cтор. 60 - 73) | Завантажити | Завантажень : 233 |
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№ 1/2022
ГАРКАВЕНКО Валентина Іванівна1, ЄРШОВА Галина Віталіївна2
1ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
2ДУ "Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України"
THE INFLUENCE OF GOVERNMENT DEBT POLICY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE'S ECONOMY
Economy and forecasting 2022; 1:84-101 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.01.084 |
АНОТАЦІЯ ▼
The influence of the government's debt policy on the development of Ukraine's economy is analyzed. It is determined that today almost all indicators of debt stability in Ukraine exceed the critical limit, beyond which the state loses the ability to solve debt problems on its own. Thus, during 2014–2021, the domestic public and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine increased in hryvnia equivalent by 3.9 times and as of the end of 2021 amounted to UAH 1,111.6 billion. The increase in debt was primarily due to direct public debt, which increased 4.1 times during the analyzed period.
It is concluded that the scale of government borrowing in Ukraine makes it a threat to the economy, because without a change in the current government debt policy, the risk of the government's inability to meet its obligations to repay and service the debt will increase. Emphasis is placed on rethinking the country's economic policy in the direction of limiting the country's debt dependence, improving the structure of balance of payments and foreign trade balances, a balanced approach to the liberalization of relations in the foreign economic sphere and attracting foreign investment.
A detailed analysis of trends in the issuance of domestic and external government bonds, as well as attracting debt financing from international financial organizations. The study of trends, and most importantly the structure of domestic government bonds, suggests that their growth is due to the need to finance not only the state budget deficit, but also the shortcomings and miscalculations of monetary and debt policy, as well as protectionist interests of individual businesses.
Emphasis is placed on the fact that a significant share of non-residents' funds in domestic government bonds increases the country's exchange rate and financial vulnerability and is a factor that allows non-residents to influence the foreign exchange market and, accordingly, the national currency and international reserves of Ukraine
Ключові слова:government debt policy, state budget deficit, public debt, debt sustainability, domestic government bonds, external government bonds
Стаття англійською мовою (cтор. 84 - 101) | Завантажити | Завантажень : 99 |
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