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| НА ГОЛОВНУ | |
№ 1/2019
1ДУ «Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України»
Фіскальна стійкість в умовах становлення економіки довголіття
| Economy and forecasting 2019; 1:31-46 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2019.01.031 |
АНОТАЦІЯ ▼
Досліджено процеси впливу зростання державних витрат на охорону здоров'я, спричинені демографічним старінням населення, на стійкість державних фінансів у контексті становлення "економіки довголіття". Проведено сценарну оцінку стійкості державних фінансів в Україні на середньострокову та довгострокову перспективу, що базується на розрахунку показника фіскального розриву. Зокрема, досліджено "стресовий вплив" зміни показників макроекономічного розвитку та фіскальної позиції на стійкість державних фінансів за умови реалізації історичного сценарію. Доведено суттєвий вплив демографічного старіння населення в Україні на стійкість державних фінансів. Визначено, що у довгостроковій перспективі відбуватиметься кардинальна трансформація "витратного профілю" на охорону здоров'я за статево-віковими групами, що, для прикладу, зумовлена зміщенням споживання цих витрат до населення старших вікових груп та зростання їх частки.
Обґрунтовано потребу збільшення фіскального простору для виконання нормативних вимог законодавства України щодо фінансування охорони здоров'я на основі розрахунку необхідного структурного первинного балансу для подолання фіскального розриву, який запропоновано використовувати як один з орієнтирів для реалізації фіскальної політики з метою досягнення середньострокової та довгострокової стійкості державних фінансів за визначений період фіскального коригування. Запропоновано проведення моніторингу та контролю темпів і факторів зростання витрат на охорону здоров'я у середньостроковій та довгостроковій перспективах; розроблення індикаторів оцінки фіскального простору для охорони здоров'я з урахуванням потенційних змін демографічної структури населення; оцінку трансформації фіскального простору для фінансування охорони здоров'я в умовах становлення економіки довголіття та одночасного дотримання стійкості системи державних фінансів.
Ключові слова: фіскальна стійкість, державні фінанси, охорона здоров'я, фіскальний розрив, демографічне старіння, фіскальний простір, віково-залежні витрати
| Стаття англійською мовою (cтор. 31 - 46) | Завантажити | Завантажень : 352 |
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5. OECD (2015). Fiscal sustainability of health systems: bridging health and finance perspectives. Paris. doi: doi.org/10.1787/9789264233386-en
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№ 2/2020
1ДУ «Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України»
| Economy and forecasting 2020; 2:5-15 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2020.02.005 |
АНОТАЦІЯ ▼
Ключові слова:
| Стаття англійською мовою (cтор. 5 - 15) | Завантажити | Завантажень : 430 |
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8. Ghosh, J. Messages from "Fiscal Space". Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/global-inequality-in-fiscal-capacity-by-jayati-ghosh-202 0-05?a_la=english&a_d=5ebbd46831305e26b0cf1457&a_m=&a_a=click&a_ s=& a_p=%2Fcolumnist%2Fjayati-ghosh&a_li=global-inequality-in-fiscal-capacity-by-jayati-ghosh-2020-05&a_pa=columnist-commentaries&a_ps=&a_ms=&a_r=
9. Bramucci, A. Decades of Tight Fiscal Policy Have Left the Health Care System in Italy Ill-Prepared to Fight the COVID-19. Outbreak. Retrieved from www.intereconomics.eu/contents/year/2020/number/3/article/decades-of-tight-fiscal-policy-have-left-the-health-care-system-in-italy-ill-prepared-to-fight-the-covid-19-outbreak.html
10. Ortiz, I. Fighting Coronavirus: It's Time to Invest in Universal Public Health. Retrieved from www.cadtm.org/Fighting-Coronavirus-It-s-Time-to-Invest-in-Universal-Public-Health
11. ILO (2020). Social protection responses to COVID-19 crisis around the world, Retrieved from www.social-protection.org/gimi/ShowMainPage.action?ctx=0
12. OECD (2020). Health System Response Tracker. Retrieved from www.oecd.org/health/COVID19-OECD-Health-System-Response-Tracker.xlsx
13. Gupta, S., Barroy, H. The COVID-19 Crisis and Budgetary Space for Health in Developing Countries. Retrieved from www.cgdev.org/blog/covid-19-crisis-and-budgetary-space-health-developing-countries
14. Barroy, H. How to budget for COVID-19 response? A rapid scan of budgetary mechanisms in highly affected countries? Retrieved from p4h.world/en/node/8821
15. Tax and Fiscal Policy in Response to the Coronavirus Crisis: Strengthening Confidence and Resilience. Retrieved from read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=128_128575-o6raktc0aa&title=Tax-and-Fiscal-Policy-in-Response-to-the-Coronavirus-Crisis
16. COVID-19 and UK Public Finances. Retrieved from cfmsurvey.org/surveys/covid-19-and-uk-public-finances
17. Ghosh, J. How to finance social protection in developing countries in the age of COVID-19. Retrieved from iloblog.org/2020/05/13/how-to-finance-social-protection-in-developing-countries-in-the-age-of-covid-19
18. Jain, V. Harnessing the power of health taxes. Retrieved from www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1436.full, htps://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1436
19. Yazbeck, A., Savedoff, W., Kutzin,J. (2020). The Case Against Labor-TaxFinanced Social Health Insurance For Low- And Low-Middle-Income Countries. Health Affairs, 5. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2019.00874
20. Thomson, S. (2014). Economic crisis, health systems and health in Europe: Impact and implications for policy. World Health Organization. Retrieved from www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/257579/Economic-crisis-health-systems-Europe-impact-implications-policy.pdf
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23. Fiscal Sustainability Report 2015 (2016). European Economy Institutional Papers, 018. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/file_import/ip018_en_2.pdf
24. Ukraine: Request for Stand-by Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine. Retrieved from www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/CR/2020/English/1UKREA2020001.ashx
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