HOME PAGE Welcome to the site of Economy and Forecasting journal

№ 2020/2

Forecasting methods and models

BRYZHAN Iryna Anatoliivna1, CHEVHANOVA Vira Yakivna2, HRYHORYEVA Оlesya Volodymyrivna3, SVYSTUN Lyudmyla Anatoliivna4

1Project "Integrated Development in Ukraine" in Poltava
2National University «Yuri Kondratyuk Poltava Polytechnic»
3National University «Yuri Kondratyuk Poltava Polytechnic»
4National University «Yuri Kondratyuk Poltava Polytechnic»

Approaches to forecasting demography trends in the management of integrated area development

Economy and forecasting 2020; 2:16-31https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2020.02.016


JEL: J11, C15, C36, О18, R58

Article in English (pp. 16 - 31) DownloadDownloads :301


1. UN (2017). World Demographic Forecast. Retrieved from iac.enbek.kz/sites/default/ files/.МИРОВОЙ.pdf [in Russian].
2. Steshenko, V., Homra, O. & Stefanovskiy, A. (1999). Demographic perspectives of Ukraine until 2026. Кyiv: Institute of Economics, NAS of Ukraine [in Ukrainian].
3. Libanovа, E.M. (Eds.). (2006). Complex demographic forecast of Ukraine for the period up to 2050. Кyiv: Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms [in Ukrainian]
4. Croix, David de la & Gobbi, Paula E. (2017). Population density, fertility, and demographic convergence in developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 127, 13-24. doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.02.003
5. Vyshnevskyi, A.H. (2015). After the demographic transition: divergence, convergence or diversity? Obschestvennyie nauki i sovremennost – Social Sciences and Modernity, 2, 112-129 [in Ukrainian].
6. Merrick, Т. & Tordella, S. (1988). Demographics: people and markets. Population Bulletin, 43, 16-24.
7. Murdock, Steve H., Kelley, Chris, Jordan, Jeffry, Peccote, Beverly & Luedke, Alvin. (2006). Demographics: а guide to methods and data sources for media, business, and government. London: Boulder.
8. Leipzig charter on Sustainable European Cities. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/regional _policy/archive /themes /urban/leipzig charter
9. Guiding Principles for Sustainable Spatial Development of the European Continent. Retrieved from www.mdrap.ro/_documente/dezvoltare_teritoriala/ documente_strategice/Sustainable%20Spatial%20Development.pdf
10. Dennis, R., Howick, R. & Stewart, N. (2007). Methods of Estimating Population and Household Projections. Science Report. Environment Agency, Rio House, Waterside Drive, Aztec West, Almondsbury, Bristol.
11. Smith, Stanley, Tayman, Jeffrey & Swanson David. (2002). State and Local Population Projections. Methodology and Analysis. New York, Boston, Dordrecht, London, Moscow: Kluwer Academic Publishers. doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47372-0
12. Klosterman, Richard Е. (1990). Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Rowman& Littlefield.
13. Chapin, Tim & Diaz-Venegas, Carlos. (2007). Local Government Guide to Population Estimation and Projection Techniques. A Guide to Data Sources and Metho-dologies for Forecasting Population Growth. Florida Department of Community Affairs. Division of Community Planning.
14. Mussio, Irene & Tondo, Christian. (2009, June). The implications of the current German demographic evolution. Insight. Retrieved from ssrn.com/abstract=1445410; doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1445410
15. Tuljapurkar, Shripad. (2006). Population Forecasts, Fiscal Policy, and Risk. Final paper for the conference, "Government Spending on the Elderly" at The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, April 28-29, Stanford University. Working Paper No. 471. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.924627
16. Alho, Juha M. (2014). Forecasting demographic forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 30: 4, 1128-1135. doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.005
17. Lassila, Jukka, Valkonena, Tarmo & Alho, Juha M. (2014). Demographic forecasts and fiscal policy rules. International Journal of Forecasting, 30: 4, 1098-1109. doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009
18. Wilson, Tom. (2013). Quantifying the uncertainty of regional demographic forecasts. Applied Geography, 42, 108-115. doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.05.006
19. De Iaco, Sandra & Maggio, Sabrina. (2016). A dynamic model for age-specific fertility rates in Italy. Spatial Statistics, 17, 105-120. doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2016.05.002
20. Shangad, Han Lin, Smith, Peter W.F., Bijak, Jakub & Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz. (2016). A multilevel functional data method for forecasting population, with an application to the United Kingdom. International Journal of Forecasting, 32: 3, 629-649. doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.10.002
21. Rueda, Cristina & Rodríguez, Pilar. (2010). State space models for estimating and forecasting fertility. International Journal of Forecasting, 26: 4, 712-724. doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.09.008
22. United Nations (1974). Manuals on methods of estimating population. MANUAL VIII. Methods for Projections of Urbanand Rural Population. New York.
23. Malynovska, O.A. Internal migration and temporary displacement in Ukraine in conditions of political and socio-economic threats. niss.gov.ua. Retrieved from www.niss.gov.ua/content/ articles/ files/ vnutrishnya_migratsia-45aa1.pdf [in Ukrainian].
24. Ukrainian society: migration dimension (2018). Ptoukha Institute of Demography and Social Studies of NAS of Ukraine. Кyiv. [in Ukrainian].
25. Migration in Ukraine: Facts and Figures. iom.org.ua. Retrieved from iom.org.ua/sites/default/files/ff_ukr_21_10_press.pdf [in Ukrainian]
26. Poltava-2030. Concept of Integrated Urban Development (2018). Institute of Urban Development CO. PCC. Poltava. Retrieved from drive.google.com/file/d/1Rzf_AaUJ29PNKfNoDts2Ar4BF7Z7Nt1D/view [in Ukrainian].