HOME PAGE Welcome to the site of Economy and Forecasting journal

№ 2021/4

Market: forecast and conjuncture


DIACHUK Oleksandr Anatoliiovych1, SEMENIUK Andrii Оlehovych2

1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

METHODS AND MODELS OF ESTIMATING ENERGY TRANSITION ON THE EXAMPLE OF ZHYTOMYR UNITED TERRITORIAL COMMUNITY

Economy and forecasting 2021; 4:62-85https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2021.04.062


ABSTRACT ▼


JEL: R11, R58, Q01, Q2, Q3, Q4, Q54, O1, O2

Article in English (pp. 62 - 85) DownloadDownloads :11

REFERENCES ▼

References
1. Adoption of the Paris Agreement. The Framework Convention UN on Climate Change (2015). Retrieved from unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/rus/l09r01r.pdf
2. The State of the Global Climate 2020. Retrieved from public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate
3. IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved from www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf
4. UN. Cities and Pollution. Retrieved from www.un.org/en/climatechange/climate-solutions/cities-pollution
5. Hodson M. and Marvin S. (2009, March). ‘Urban Ecological Security': A New Urban Paradigm? International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 193-215. doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2427.2009.00832.x
6. The Covenant of Mayors. Retrieved from www.eumayors.eu/about/covenant-initiative/origins-and-development.html
7. Guidebook "How to Develop a Sustainable Energy Action Plan (SEAP)" (2010). Institute for Energy and Transport (Joint Research Centre). Publication Office of the European Union.
8. European Commission (2018). Guidebook "How to develop a Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plan (SECAP)". Part 1: The SECAP process, step-by-step towards low carbon and climate resilient cities by 2030. Joint Research Centre. Publications Office of the European Union.
9. Ready for 100. Sierra club. Retrieved from www.sierraclub.org/ready-for-100/
10. Campaign 100% RES in Ukraine. 350.org. Retrieved from ukraine.350.org/projects/kampaniya-100-vde-v-ukrayini/ [in Ukrainian].
11. A plan for the future of the planet. European investment bank. Retrieved from www.eib.org/en/stories/climate-bank-roadmap#
12. LEDS (2016). Energy toolkit 2.0 - Leading Instruments and Methodologies for Sustainable Energy Planning.
13. Markovic, D., Cvetkovic, D. and Masic, B. (2011). Survey of software tools for energy efficiency in a community. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15: 9, 4897-4903. doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2011.06.014
14. Overview of TIMES Modelling Tool. IEA. Retrieved from iea-etsap.org/index.php/etsap-tools/model-generators/times
15. Podolets', R.Z. Diachuk, O.A. TIMES-Ukraine. Retrieved from timesukraine.tokni.com/about [in Ukrainian].
16. Tochylin, V., Podolets', R., Diachuk, O. ta Oleksandrenko, Yu. (2010). Applied Economic and Mathematical Model "Times-Ukraine" to optimize energy flows and forecasting the energy balance of Ukraine. Nauka innov. – Science and innovation, 6: 2, 48-66. doi.org/10.15407/scin6.02.048 [in Ukrainian].
17. Chepeliev, M., Diachuk, O. and Podolets R. (2018). Economic Assessment of Low-Emission Development Scenarios for Ukraine. Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2 °C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development (p. 277-295). Springer International Publishing. doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74424-7_17
18. Zhytomyr received an informational and analytical note "Model scenario estimates of the transition of Zhytomyr per 100% renewable energy sources by 2050" (2021, April, 19). Retrieved from zt-rada.gov.ua/?3398[0]=13417 [in Ukrainian].
19. Keirstead, J., Jennings, M. and Sivakumar, A. (2012). A review of urban energy system models: Approaches, challenges and opportunities. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16: 6, 3847-3866. doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.02.047
20. Keirstead, J. and Calderon C. (2012). Capturing spatial effects, technology interactions, and uncertainty in urban energy and carbon models: Retrofitting newcastle as a case-study. Energy Policy, 46, 253-267. doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.03.058
21. Dagoumas, A. (2013). Modelling socio-economic and energy aspects of urban systems. Sustainable Cities and Society, 13, 192-206. doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2013.11.003
22. Thellufsen, J., Lund, H., Sorknæs, P., Østergaard, P., Chang, M. and Drysdale, D. (2020). Smart energy cities in a 100% renewable energy context. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 129. doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.109922
23. Sandvall, A.F., Ahlgren, E.O. and Ekvall, T. (2017). Low-energy buildings heat supply–Modelling of energy systems and carbon emissions impacts. Energy Policy, 111, 371-382. doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.09.007
24. Lind, A. and Espegren, K. (2017). The use of energy system models for analysing the transition to low-carbon cities - The case of Oslo. Energy Strategy Reviews, 15, 44-56. doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2017.01.001
25. Zaporizhzhya City Council (2014, June 2). Municipal Energy Plan of Zaporizhzhia for 2014-2030. Retrieved from zp.gov.ua/upload/editor/1-1-_municipalnij_energetichnij_plan_zaporizhzhya.pdf [in Ukrainian].
26. Chernenko, O. (2016). Regarding the modeling of traffic flow to analyze roads in cities. Transportni systemy ta tekhnolohii perevezen'. Zbirnyk naukovykh prats' Dnipropetrovs'koho natsional'noho universytetu zaliznychnoho transportu imeni akademika V. Lazariana – Transport systems and traffic technologies. Collection of scientific works of the Dnipropetrovsk National University of Railway Transport named after Academician V. Lazaryan, 12 [in Ukrainian].
27. Ponkratov, D. (2016). Features of modeling passenger traffic in cities. Visnyk Skhidnoukrains'koho natsional'noho universytetu imeni Volodymyra Dalia – Bulletin of the East Ukrainian National University named after Vladimir Dahl, 175-179 [in Ukrainian].
28. Bakulich, O.O., Dudnyk, A.I. (2013). Modeling the impact of traffic flows on the city's surroundings. Visnyk DITB. Seriia: Ekonomika, orhanizatsiia ta upravlinnia pidpryiemstvamy turystychnoi industrii ta turystychnoi haluzi v tsilomu – Bulletin of DITB. Series: Economics, Organization and Management of Tourist Industry and Tourist Industry as a whole, 312-316 [in Ukrainian].
29. Podchashyns'kyj, Yu.O., Kotsiuba, I.H., Lyko, S.M., Luk'ianova, V.V. (2017). Mathematical modeling and prediction of volumes of accumulation of solid communal waste of the city. Visnyk Natsional'noho transportnoho universytetu – Bulletin of the National Transport University, 3, 109-116 [in Ukrainian].
30. Il'chenko, K. and Lisohor, A. (2015). Modeling of sustainable development of cities for developing countries. ScienceRise, 21-29 [in Ukrainian].
31. Haluschenko, I. (2014). Problems of modeling of regional energy development processes. Ekonomiko-matematychne modeliuvannia sotsial'no-ekonomichnykh system – Economic and mathematical modeling of socio-economic systems, 102-114 [in Ukrainian].
32. State Statistics Service of Ukraine, Main Department of Statistics in Zhytomyr region (2018). Zhytomyr 2017: Statistical Collection Zhytomyr [in Ukrainian].
33. Zhytomyr City Council (2017). City Target Program "Municipal Energy Plan of Zhytomyr in 2017-2020. Zhytomyr [in Ukrainian].
34. Zhytomyr City Council (2017). Action Plan for Sustainable Energy Development of Zhytomyr in 2015-2024. Zhytomyr [in Ukrainian].
35. Zhytomyr City Council (2017). Regional target program of bioenergy technologies in heat and hot water supply in Zhytomyr region for 2017-2020. Zhytomyr [in Ukrainian].
36. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Energy balance of Ukraine. Retrieved from ukrstat.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
37. National demographic forecasts. Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.idss.org.ua/monografii/popforecast2014.rar [in Ukrainian].
38. World Population Prospects 2019. Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. Retrieved from esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm [in Ukrainian].
39. Zeng, Z., Ziegler, A.and Searchinger, T. et al. (2019). A reversal in global terrestrial stilling and its implications for wind energy production. Nature Climate Change, 9, 979-985. doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0622-6
40. Antonenko, T. and Hnizdovs'kyj, O. (2019). Environmental Impact Assessment Report, New Construction of Primorsk VES-2. Retrieved from www.eia.menr.gov.ua/ uploads/documents/2974/reports/a3f16a0282d4b88913615921ad447d55.pdf [in Ukrainian].
41 Diachuk, O., Chepeliev, M., Podolets, R., Trypolska, G. et al. (2017). Transition of Ukraine to the Renewable Energy by 2050. Kyiv: Publishing house “Art Book” Ltd.
42. United States Environmental Protection Agency. Health and Environmental Effects of Particulate Matter (PM). Retrieved from www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/health-and-environmental-effects-particulate-matter-pm
43. Decree of the President of Ukraine "On Objectives of Sustainable Development of Ukraine for the period up to 2030" from September 30, 2019 No. 722/2019. Retrieved from www.president.gov.ua/documents/7222019-29825 [in Ukrainian].