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№ 2022/1
ESTIMATION OF UKRAINE’S LOSSES FROM THE MILITARY AGGRESSION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: A MACROECONOMIC DIMENSION
| Economy and forecasting 2022; 1:6-30 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.01.006 |
ABSTRACT ▼
At the end of March 2022, researchers of the State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine" estimated the potential losses of Ukraine's national economy from the military invasion of the aggressor country. The results obtained are not final, as they only account the situation in the first month of the war. At the same time, they are quite informative in terms of presenting Ukraine's losses and the corresponding challenges this country is facing both in terms of consolidating available resources to protect state sovereignty and in terms of post-war economic reconstruction. The results obtained in the study have been sent to the central government. The paper is published in the journal without some information, which is removed for security reasons.
Keywords:potential losses, Ukraine's national economy, military invasion
JEL: С13, С53, E20, H56
| Article in English (pp. 6 - 30) | Download | Downloads :61 |
REFERENCES ▼
1. Ukraine: Request for Purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Cancellation of Stand-by Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine. IMF Country Report. No. 22/74. March, 2022. Retrieved from www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2022/03/10/Ukraine-Request-for-Purchase-under-the-Rapid-Financing-Instrument-and-Cancellation-of-Stand-514148; doi.org/10.5089/9798400204852.002
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7. Ministry of Economy says when Ukraine's GDP loss due to war will be calculated (2022, 14 March). Retrieved from economy.24tv.ua/minekonomiki-povidomili-koli-pochnut-pidrahovuvati-vtrati-vvp_n1904648 [in Ukrainian].
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Retrieved from www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/3439184-za-misyats-ukrajini-vdalosya-zaluchiti-blizko-4-milyardiv-vid-mijnarodnih-partneriv-op.html [in Ukrainian].
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13. A third of Ukraine's economy is dysfunctional - Marchenko (2022, 19 March). Retrieved from www.epravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/19/684338/ [in Ukrainian].
14. Economic consequences of the Georgian-Russian conflict. Vienna Institute for International economic studies. Retrieved from wiiw.ac.at/press-release-economic-consequences-of-the-georgian-russian-conflict-english-pnd-19.pdf
15. World Bank national accounts data. Retrieved from data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GE
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17. World Bank national accounts data. Retrieved from data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=UA
18. Down 35%. Rashkovan on how the Ukrainian economy can survive the war – interview NV. Retrieved from biz.nv.ua/economics/chto-proishodit-s-ukrainskoy-ekonomikoy-vo-vremya-voyny-intervyu-nv-50226235.html [in Russian].
19. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine (2022, March 14). Ukraine's GDP losses from war to be counted in April - Ministry of Economy. Retrieved from minfin.com.ua/ua/2022/03/14/82151235/ [in Ukrainian].
20. Minister of Finance of Ukraine Serhii Marchenko interviewed by Forbes (2022, March 14). Retrieved from www.kmu.gov.ua/news/intervyu-ministra-finansiv-sergiya-marchenka-vidannyu-forbes-14032022
[in Ukrainian].
21. Losses for Ukraine due to Russian invasion exceed $500 bn – Shmyhal (2022, 16 March). Retrieved from interfax.com.ua/news/economic/814088.html [in Ukrainian].
22. Since the beginning of the invasion of the Russian Federation, more than 6.5 million Ukrainians have left their homes, another 3.2 million went abroad - UN. Retrieved from hromadske.ua/ru/posts/s-nachala-polnomasshtabnoj-vojny-bolee-65-mln-ukraincev-vynuzhdenno-pokinuli-doma-eshe-32-mln-vyehali-za-granicu-oon [in Ukrainian].
23. Ukraine will be provided with bread – The Minister (2022, 17 March). Retrieved from www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-hlib-ukrayina-ministr/31758176.html [in Ukrainian].
24. How much of Ukraine's territory is in need of demining - an assessment by the Association of Sappers. Retrieved from www.slovoidilo.ua/2022/03/22/novyna/bezpeka/skilky-terytoriyi-ukrayiny-potrebuye-rozminuvannya-oczinka- asocziacziyi-saperiv [in Ukrainian].
25. The Ukrainian Armed Forces estimated the cost of demining Ukraine. Retrieved from www.slovoidilo.ua/2022/03/23/novyna/bezpeka/zsu-oczinyly-vytraty-rozminuvannya-ukrayiny-sotni-milyardiv- dolariv
26. Fuel, food, ports: the economy's three pain points. BBC news.
Retrieved from www.bbc.com/ukrainian/features-60680634 [in Ukrainian].
27. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2022). Agricultural output in constant prices 2016 for 2021. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
28. Winter crop areas sown for the 2022 harvest by region (2022). Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
29. Andrii Yarmak: Global food security ruined by Russia's invasion of Ukraine could still kill hundreds of millions of people around the world (2022, 22 March). Retrieved from east-fruit.com/en/news/global-food-security- destroyed-by-russian-invasion-in-ukraine-could-kill-hundreds-of-millions-globally/?fbclid=IwAR2L_ikBxUfMQqKsIAnGf9R7EytsKP_8a5o8ut0lRQ5hxzAOwtEo5LHwQrY [in Ukrainian].
30. The impact on trade and development of the war in Ukraine - UNCTAD rapid assessment (UNCTAD/OSG/INF/2022/1). (2022, 16 Mar.). Retrieved from unctad.org/webflyer/impact-trade-and-development-war-ukraine
31. Ukraine war’s impact on trade and development (2022, 16 Mar.). Retrieved from unctad.org/news/ukraine-wars-impact-trade-and-development
32. OECD (2022). OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2022: Economic and Social Impacts and Policy Implications of the War in Ukraine. Paris: OECD Publishing. doi.org/10.1787/4181d61b-en
33. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates / USDA. WASDE-622 – March 9, 2022. Retrieved from www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde
2. Fall by 35%. Rashkovan about Volume, as a Ukrainian econome will stand up in war - Interview NV (2022, 20 March). Retrieved from biz.nv.ua/economics/chto-proishodit-s-ukrainskoy-ekonomikoy-vo-vremya-voyny-intervyu-nv-50226235.html [in Russian].
3. Fitch Ratings. Retrieved from www.fitchratings.com/entity/ukraine-80442268#ratings
4. Moody's downgrades Ukraine's ratings to Caa2 from B3, ratings remain on review for downgrade (2022, 4). Retrieved from www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Ukraines-ratings-to-Caa2-from-B3-ratings-remain--PR_463451
5. Interview with the Minister of Finance of Ukraine Sergey Marchenko by "Forbes" (2022, 14 March). Retrieved from mof.gov.ua/uk/news/interviu_ministra_finansiv_sergiia_marchenka_ vidanniu_forbes_14032022-3361 [in Ukrainian].
6. Losses for Ukraine due to the invasion of the Russian Federation exceeding $ 500 billion - Shmigal (2022, 16 March). Retrieved from interfax.com.ua/news/economic/814088.html [in Ukrainian].
7. Ministry of Economy says when Ukraine's GDP loss due to war will be calculated (2022, 14 March). Retrieved from economy.24tv.ua/minekonomiki-povidomili-koli-pochnut-pidrahovuvati-vtrati-vvp_n1904648 [in Ukrainian].
8. Ukraine destroys $8.3 bn worth of infrastructure in a week – KSE (2022, 17 March). Retrieved from lb.ua/economics/2022/03/17/509961_tizhden_ukraini_zruynovano.html [in Ukrainian].
9. Ukraine assessed the scale of the war's devastation (2022, 22 March). Retrieved from korrespondent.net/ukraine/4459467-v-ukrayne-otsenyly-masshtaby-razrushenyi-ot-voiny [in Russian].
10. Ukraine managed to raise about $4 billion from international partners in a month - Presidential Office (2022, 25 March).
Retrieved from www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/3439184-za-misyats-ukrajini-vdalosya-zaluchiti-blizko-4-milyardiv-vid-mijnarodnih-partneriv-op.html [in Ukrainian].
11.. Forbes interview with NBU deputy governor Serhii Nikolaichuk on adapting the economy to martial law and the "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine (2022, 18 March). Retrieved from forbes.ua/inside/ekonomika-zvikae-do-voennogo-chasu-zastupnik-golovi-nbu-sergiy-nikolaychuk-pro-padinnya-vvp-dopomogu-partneriv-ta-ukrainskiy-plan-marshalla-18032022-4800 [in Ukrainian].
12. 53% of Ukrainians who worked before the war are out of work now – survey (2022, 23 March). Retrieved from suspilne.media/220819-53-ukrainciv-aki-mali-robotu-do-vijni-nini-ne-pracuut-opituvanna/ [in Ukrainian].
13. A third of Ukraine's economy is dysfunctional - Marchenko (2022, 19 March). Retrieved from www.epravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/19/684338/ [in Ukrainian].
14. Economic consequences of the Georgian-Russian conflict. Vienna Institute for International economic studies. Retrieved from wiiw.ac.at/press-release-economic-consequences-of-the-georgian-russian-conflict-english-pnd-19.pdf
15. World Bank national accounts data. Retrieved from data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GE
16. How military conflicts affect the economy. Mind.ua. Retrieved from mind.ua/openmind/20173685-yak-vijskovi-konflikti-vplivayut-na-ekonomiku [in Ukrainian].
17. World Bank national accounts data. Retrieved from data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=UA
18. Down 35%. Rashkovan on how the Ukrainian economy can survive the war – interview NV. Retrieved from biz.nv.ua/economics/chto-proishodit-s-ukrainskoy-ekonomikoy-vo-vremya-voyny-intervyu-nv-50226235.html [in Russian].
19. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine (2022, March 14). Ukraine's GDP losses from war to be counted in April - Ministry of Economy. Retrieved from minfin.com.ua/ua/2022/03/14/82151235/ [in Ukrainian].
20. Minister of Finance of Ukraine Serhii Marchenko interviewed by Forbes (2022, March 14). Retrieved from www.kmu.gov.ua/news/intervyu-ministra-finansiv-sergiya-marchenka-vidannyu-forbes-14032022
[in Ukrainian].
21. Losses for Ukraine due to Russian invasion exceed $500 bn – Shmyhal (2022, 16 March). Retrieved from interfax.com.ua/news/economic/814088.html [in Ukrainian].
22. Since the beginning of the invasion of the Russian Federation, more than 6.5 million Ukrainians have left their homes, another 3.2 million went abroad - UN. Retrieved from hromadske.ua/ru/posts/s-nachala-polnomasshtabnoj-vojny-bolee-65-mln-ukraincev-vynuzhdenno-pokinuli-doma-eshe-32-mln-vyehali-za-granicu-oon [in Ukrainian].
23. Ukraine will be provided with bread – The Minister (2022, 17 March). Retrieved from www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-hlib-ukrayina-ministr/31758176.html [in Ukrainian].
24. How much of Ukraine's territory is in need of demining - an assessment by the Association of Sappers. Retrieved from www.slovoidilo.ua/2022/03/22/novyna/bezpeka/skilky-terytoriyi-ukrayiny-potrebuye-rozminuvannya-oczinka- asocziacziyi-saperiv [in Ukrainian].
25. The Ukrainian Armed Forces estimated the cost of demining Ukraine. Retrieved from www.slovoidilo.ua/2022/03/23/novyna/bezpeka/zsu-oczinyly-vytraty-rozminuvannya-ukrayiny-sotni-milyardiv- dolariv
26. Fuel, food, ports: the economy's three pain points. BBC news.
Retrieved from www.bbc.com/ukrainian/features-60680634 [in Ukrainian].
27. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2022). Agricultural output in constant prices 2016 for 2021. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
28. Winter crop areas sown for the 2022 harvest by region (2022). Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].
29. Andrii Yarmak: Global food security ruined by Russia's invasion of Ukraine could still kill hundreds of millions of people around the world (2022, 22 March). Retrieved from east-fruit.com/en/news/global-food-security- destroyed-by-russian-invasion-in-ukraine-could-kill-hundreds-of-millions-globally/?fbclid=IwAR2L_ikBxUfMQqKsIAnGf9R7EytsKP_8a5o8ut0lRQ5hxzAOwtEo5LHwQrY [in Ukrainian].
30. The impact on trade and development of the war in Ukraine - UNCTAD rapid assessment (UNCTAD/OSG/INF/2022/1). (2022, 16 Mar.). Retrieved from unctad.org/webflyer/impact-trade-and-development-war-ukraine
31. Ukraine war’s impact on trade and development (2022, 16 Mar.). Retrieved from unctad.org/news/ukraine-wars-impact-trade-and-development
32. OECD (2022). OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2022: Economic and Social Impacts and Policy Implications of the War in Ukraine. Paris: OECD Publishing. doi.org/10.1787/4181d61b-en
33. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates / USDA. WASDE-622 – March 9, 2022. Retrieved from www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde
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