|
| HOME PAGE | |
№ 2022/1
HARKAVENKO Valentyna Ivanivna1, YERSHOVA Galina Vitaliivna2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
THE INFLUENCE OF GOVERNMENT DEBT POLICY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE'S ECONOMY
| Economy and forecasting 2022; 1:84-101 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.01.084 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The influence of the government's debt policy on the development of Ukraine's economy is analyzed. It is determined that today almost all indicators of debt stability in Ukraine exceed the critical limit, beyond which the state loses the ability to solve debt problems on its own. Thus, during 2014–2021, the domestic public and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine increased in hryvnia equivalent by 3.9 times and as of the end of 2021 amounted to UAH 1,111.6 billion. The increase in debt was primarily due to direct public debt, which increased 4.1 times during the analyzed period.
It is concluded that the scale of government borrowing in Ukraine makes it a threat to the economy, because without a change in the current government debt policy, the risk of the government's inability to meet its obligations to repay and service the debt will increase. Emphasis is placed on rethinking the country's economic policy in the direction of limiting the country's debt dependence, improving the structure of balance of payments and foreign trade balances, a balanced approach to the liberalization of relations in the foreign economic sphere and attracting foreign investment.
A detailed analysis of trends in the issuance of domestic and external government bonds, as well as attracting debt financing from international financial organizations. The study of trends, and most importantly the structure of domestic government bonds, suggests that their growth is due to the need to finance not only the state budget deficit, but also the shortcomings and miscalculations of monetary and debt policy, as well as protectionist interests of individual businesses.
Emphasis is placed on the fact that a significant share of non-residents' funds in domestic government bonds increases the country's exchange rate and financial vulnerability and is a factor that allows non-residents to influence the foreign exchange market and, accordingly, the national currency and international reserves of Ukraine
Keywords:government debt policy, state budget deficit, public debt, debt sustainability, domestic government bonds, external government bonds
JEL: H63
| Article in English (pp. 84 - 101) | Download | Downloads :92 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Theory of Finance (2010). Kyiv: Center for Educational Literature [in Ukrainian].
3. Ukraine and the world economy: Interaction at the turn of the millennium (2002). Kyiv: Lybid' [in Ukrainian].
4. Bogdan, T. (2019). Global debt as an indicator of the problems of the world economy and challenges for Ukraine's financial policy. Finansy Ukrainy – Finance of Ukraine, 9, 43-63. doi.org/10.33763/finukr2019.09.043 [in Ukrainian].
5. Vasilyk, O. (2004). Public Finance. Kyiv: Literature [in Ukrainian].
6. Hasanov, S., Kudryashov, V., Balakin, R. (2014). EU experience in crisis management of public finances and its use in Ukraine. Finansy Ukrainy – Finance of Ukraine, 7, 17-30 [in Ukrainian].
7. Pedchenko, N., Lugovskaya, L. (2021). The essence of the concept of "debt policy of the state". Naukovyj visnyk Poltavs'koho universytetu ekonomiky i torhivli – Scientific Bulletin of Poltava University of Economics and Trade, 2 (53), 229-236 [in Ukrainian].
8. IMF (2019). Our Interconnected World. Annual Report. Retrieved from www.imf.org
9. Tabah, A., Podrugina, A. (2021, 6 August). Budget policy: a new turn. ECONOS. Economic conversation. Retrieved from econs.online/articles/opinions/byudzhetnaya-politika-novyy-povorot [in Ukrainian].
10. Risks and threats to financial security of the public finance sector and ways to overcome them (2013). Kyiv: SESI "Academy of Financial Management" [in Ukrainian].
11. IMF (October 2021). Prospects for the development of the world economy. Recovery during a pandemic: health concerns, supply disruptions, price pressures. Retrieved from www.imf.org
12. Data on Ukraine's external debt. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.mof.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
13. Anti-crisis financial management in conditions of uncertainty (2021). Kyiv: "Summit Book" [in Ukrainian].
14. Debts on IGLBs for the respective periods. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. Retrieved from www.mof.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
15. Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine "On increasing the authorized capital of the National Joint-Stock Company" Naftogaz of Ukraine "of August 4, 2014 No. 302. Retrieved from www.kmu.gov.ua/npas/247502705 [in Ukrainian].
16. Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine On increasing the authorized capital of the National Joint Stock Company "Naftogaz of Ukraine" of January 23, 2015 No. 13. Retrieved from zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/13-2015-%D0%BF#Text [in Ukrainian].
17. Results of placement of domestic government bonds (for relevant periods). Retrieved from bank.gov.ua/ua/markets/ovdp-table [in Ukrainian].
18. Official news of the NBU. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
19. Garkavenko, V., Yeshova, G. (2020). The impact of currency liberalization on the economy of Ukraine. Ekon. prognozuvannâ – Economy and forecasting, 3, 25-40. doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.03.025 [in Ukrainian].
20. Banking statistics. Retrieved from bank.gov.ua [in Ukrainian].
Events calendar
| M | T | W | T | F | S | S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
| 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
| 29 | 30 | |||||
