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№ 2023/2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
INFLUENCE OF FDI ON STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE ECONOMY IN THE CONTEXT OF PROSPECTS FOR POST-WAR RECOVERY OF UKRAINE
| Economy and forecasting 2023; 2:30-57 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2023.02.030 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The recovery of the national economy, which is undergoing great destruction as a result of full-scale Russian aggression in Ukraine, will require attracting not only domestic but also foreign investments. The post-war experience of various countries shows that the inflow of foreign capital contributed to meeting the needs for investment resources for the reconstruction of the economy and its structural modernization. The recent history of the rapid rise of newly industrialized countries also demonstrates that foreign investments enable the transformation of the structure of the recipient economy, and its progress towards higher levels of industrial development.
The purpose of this study is to conduct an analysis of the accumulation and sectoral distribution of FDI in the Ukrainian economy, to assess the effects of FDI to change the structure and dynamics of economic growth, and to identify approaches to attracting foreign investment in the context of prospects for post-war recovery and economic restructuring.
The article examines the accumulation of FDI in the Ukrainian economy in historical retrospect, analyzes the distribution of their reserves among the sectors and subsectors, as well as their geographical origin. The author assesses the depth of penetration of the FDI into the economy in general and into the technological sectors within the processing industry, in particular, and reveals various contradictory effects created by foreign investments for the development of the national economy, technological progress, and economic security.
Using regression modeling, the article investigates the FDI as a factor capable of contributing to the transformation of Ukraine’s economy, and changing the structural distribution of added value and employment between sectors. The simulation results confirm that the accumulation of FDI really affects the dynamics of GVA production and employment in economic sectors, that is, it causes structural shifts in the economy. At the same time, sectoral assessments reveal the mixed effectiveness of this factor in terms of the strength and direction of changes in the structure of the economy.
Keywords:foreign direct investments, structural changes in the economy, employment structure, industrial sector of the economy, manufacturing, technological structure of industry, post-war recovery of the economy
JEL: C2, F21, J21, L16, N4
| Article in English (pp. 30 - 57) | Download | Downloads :35 |
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3. Horodnichenko, Yu., Solohub, I. & di Mauro, B.V. (Eds.). (2022). Reconstruction of Ukraine: principles and politics. CEPR PRESS [in Ukrainian].
4. Panchenko, Yu. (2022, October 21). World Bank: Western aid will not be enough to restore Ukraine. Private investment is required. Yevropeiska pravda – European truth. Retrieved from www.eurointegration.com.ua/interview/2022/10/21/7149062/ [in Ukrainian].
5. World Bank (2022). World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data Gross savings (% of GDP). World Development Indicators. Retrieved from data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS
6. Skrypnychenko, M., Kuznietsova, L. & Bilotserkivets, O. (2022). Scenario based macro assessments of the post-war recovery of Ukraine's economy. Economy and forecasting, 3, 48-74. doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.03.019
7. Danylyshyn, B. (2022, December 28). Results of 2022 and tasks for 2023. Ekonomichna pravda – Economic truth. Retrieved from www.epravda.com.ua/columns/2022/12/28/695523/ [in Ukrainian].
8. Zymovets, V.V., Sheludko, N.M., & Shyshkov, S.Ye. (2021). Macroeconomic and institutional barriers of "normalization" of an enterprise’s financing models in Ukraine. Econ. promisl. – Economy of Industry, 2 (94), 45-58. doi.org/10.15407/econindustry2021.02.045 [in Ukrainian].
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12. Wasser, S.F. & Dolfman, M.L. (2005, June). BLS and the Marshall Plan: the forgotten story. Monthly Labor Review, 44-52. Retrieved from stats.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2005/06/art4full.pdf
13. Eichengreen, B. (2011). Lessons from the Marshall Plan. World Development Report 2011 Background Papers. World Bank, Washington, DC. Retrieved from hdl.handle.net/10986/27506
14. Tarnoff, C. (2018, Jan. 18). The Marshall Plan: Design, Accomplishments, and Historic Significance. Congressional Research Service Report, 7-5700, R45079. Retrieved from www.crs.gov
15. Eichengreen, B. (2022, May 10) Shaping a Marshall Plan for Ukraine. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
16. Blomström M., Konan D. & Lipsey R. E. (2000, May). FDI in the Restructuring of the Japanese Economy. NBER Working Paper No. 7693. doi.org/10.3386/w7693
17. Rodrik D., McMillan M. & Sepúlveda C. (2016). Structural change, fundamentals, and growth. In M. McMillan, D. Rodrik, C. Sepúlveda (Eds.), Structural change, fundamentals, and growth: a framework and case studies (p. 1-38). Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8962-9214-7
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19. Escobar, O. & Mühlen, H. (2018). The role of FDI in structural change: Evidence from Mexico. KCG Working Paper, 13. Kiel Centre for Globalization (KCG). Kiel. Retrieved from hdl.handle.net/10419/183188
20. Emako, E., Nuru, S. & Menza, M. (2022). The effect of foreign direct investment on structural transformation in developing countries. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10 (1). doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2125658
21. Wang, W., Xu, T., Liu, X., & Sun, Y. (2023). FDI inflows and income inequality: A Schumpeterian economic growth. International Review of Economics & Finance, 83(C), 805-820. doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2022.10.023
22. Alviarez, V.I., Chen, Ch., Pandalai-Nayar N., Varela, L., Yi K.-M. & Zhang H. (2022, September). Multinationals and structural transformation. NBER Working Paper 30494. doi.org/10.3386/w30494
23. Carbonell, J.B. & Werner, R.A. (2018). Does Foreign Direct Investment Generate Economic Growth? A New Empirical Approach Applied to Spain. Economic Geography, 94 (4), 425-456. doi.org/10.1080/00130095.2017.1393312
24. Paul, J. & Feliciano-Cestero, M. M. (2021). Five decades of research on foreign direct investment by MNEs: An overview and research agenda. Journal of Business Research, 124, 800-812. doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.04.017
25. Swapnil, S., Hillemane, M. & Subrahmanya, B. (2020). Growth and Structural Change in the Indian Economy An Analysis of Pattern, Determinants, and Outcomes. Economic and political weekly, 55 (26-27), 65-70.
26. UNCTAD (2022). World Investment Report 2022. International tax reforms and sustainable investment. Retrieved from unctad.org/publication/world-investment-report-2022
27. UNCTAD (2018). World Investment Report 2018 Investment and New Industrial Policies. Retrieved from unctad.org/
28. UNIDO (2020). Industrial Development Report 2020. Industrializing in the digital age. Retrieved from www.unido.org/resources-publications-flagship-publications-industrial-development-report-series/idr2020
29. Acemoglu, D. (2022, Oct. 28). China’s Economy Is Rotting from the Head. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
30. McCaig, B. & Pavcnik, N. (2016). Moving Out of Agriculture: Structural Change in Viet Nam. In M. McMillan, D. Rodrik, C. Sepúlveda (Eds.), Structural change, fundamentals, and growth: a framework and case studies (p. 81-124). Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
31. Muhlen, H. & Escobar, O. (2020). The role of FDI in structural change: Evidence from Mexico. The World Economy, 43, 557-585. doi.org/10.1111/twec.12879
32. Lee, K. (2023, Feb. 24). Will the New Industrial Policy Work? Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
33. Rodrik, D. (2022, Feb. 9). Reviving Appropriate Technology. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
34. Lee, K. (2021, Oct. 11). China's Loss Can Be Southeast Asia's Gain. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
35. Zhai, W., Sun, S. & Zhang, G. (2016). Reshoring of American manufacturing companies from China. Operations Management Research, 9, 62-74. doi.org/10.1007/s12063-016-0114-z
36. Moyo, D. (2022, Nov. 17). What should jittery China investors do? Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
37. El-Erian, M. A. (2023, Mar. 8). Fragmented Globalization. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
38. Zeng, K. & Liang, W. (2022). Chapter 1: Introduction: trade wars past and present: causes, dynamics and consequences. Research Handbook on Trade Wars. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing. doi.org/10.4337/9781839105708
39. De Ville, F. (2023, January). The return of industrial policy in the European Union. GIES Occasional Paper: Global Energy Crisis. Ghent Institute for International and European Studies. Retrieved from www.ugent.be/ps/politiekewetenschappen/ gies/en/research/publications/gies_papers/2023-global-energy-crisis
40. Kuzub, A. (2023, Jan. 13). US leverages its relationship with Taiwan to help rebuild the domestic semiconductor industry. Northeastern Global News. Retrieved from news.northeastern.edu/2023/01/13/tsmc-investment-us-taiwan/
41. Tyson, L. & Mendonca, L. (2023, Jan. 2). America’s New Era of Industrial Policy. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
42. Qian, N. (2023, Apr. 14). Banning China from Owning US Farmland Will Achieve Nothing. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from www.project-syndicate.org/
43. Chellaney, B. (2022, Dec. 4). A spotlight on Chinese debt bondage. The Japan Times. Retrieved from www.japantimes.co.jp/
44. Palivoda, A. (2019, August 16). China, which lacks everything. Dzerkalo tyzhnia. Ukraina – Mirror of the week. Ukraine. Retrieved from zn.ua/ukr/finances/kitay-yakomu-vse-malo-320867_.html [in Ukrainian].
45. Havlik, P., Hunya, G. & Zaytsev, Y. (2018, June). Foreign Direct Investments: A Comparison of EAEU, DCFTA and Selected EU-CEE Countries. WIIW Research Report, 428.
46. Bruno, R.L., Campos, N. F. & Estrin, S. (2021). The Effect on Foreign Direct Investment of membership in the European Union. Journal of Common Market Studies, 59 (4), 802-821. doi.org/10.1111/jcms.13131
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