|
| HOME PAGE | |
№ 2022/4
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Inter-status mobility in Ukraine’s labor market
| Economy and forecasting 2022; 4:54-76 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.04.054 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article studies the functioning of Ukraine's labor market in 2019–2021 through the prism of the status flows of labor force, for which various methodological techniques of analytical research are consistently applied, which, complementing each other, allow analyzing the flows from different angles of view. So, using micro data on labor force indicators and their characteristics, probabilistic matrices of transitions of Ukraine's population between employment, unemployment and economic inactivity are constructed, assuming that such transitions occur according to the Markov process. As a result, the scope, nature and dominant vectors of the movements of Ukrainians between the three main statuses on the labor market are revealed. Based on the algorithms for calculating Shorrock's indices – proxy indices of mobility, the author carries out an integral assessment of the intensity of inter-status movement in Ukraine's labor market. A similar assessment for a number of European countries makes it possible to propose a basis for cross-country comparison of the level of mobility in Ukraine. Using economic-mathematical modeling of multiple choice, the author reveals socio-demographic factors determining the individual's status on Ukraine's labor market, and in so doing also answers the question of stability of the observed status.
It is shown that the analysis of inter-status mobility of labor force provides a powerful basis for better understanding of the functioning of the labor market, characterizes the mechanisms of adaptation of the latter and allows observing the direction and intensity of flows behind any specific change in gross employment, unemployment or economic inactivity, which makes relevant policy measures on the labor market more targeted. In particular, since the analyzed period was marked by increased unemployment in Ukraine, the author establishes the role of flows in the above mentioned dynamics and in the distribution of the risk of job loss, taking into account such socio-demographic characteristics of individuals as gender, age and education level. Understanding such connections is important for developing high quality solutions aimed at reducing unemployment in the country.
Keywords:mobility, labor force, employment, unemployment, economic inactivity, labor market, Ukraine
JEL: J21, J60
| Article in English (pp. 54 - 76) | Download | Downloads :80 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Marston, S.T. (1976). Employment instability and high unemployment rates. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 169-210. doi.org/10.2307/2534049
3. Clark, K.B., Summers, L.H. (1978). Labor transitions and unemployment. NBER Working Paper, 277. doi.org/10.3386/w0277
4. Clark, K.B., Summers, L.H. (1979). Labor market dynamics and unemployment: a reconsideration. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 13-72. doi.org/10.2307/2534304
5. Ward-Warmedinger, M., Macchiarelli, C. (2013). Transitions in labour market status in EU labour markets. IZA Discussion Paper, 7814. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2370780
6. Harris, R.I.D. (1996). Estimating unemployment inflows, outflows and long-term unemployment in Britain using the cointegration approach. Applied Economics, 28(10), 1199-1212. doi.org/10.1080/000368496327750
7. Gomes, P. (2010). Labour market flows: facts from the United Kingdom. IZA Discussion Paper, 5327. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1712634
8. Daouli, J., Demoussis, M., Giannakopoulos, N., & Lampropoulou, N. (2015). The ins and outs of unemployment, in the current Greek economic crisis. South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, 2, 177-196.
9. Haltiwanger, J., Vodopivec, M. (2002). Gross worker and job flows in a transition economy: an analysis of Estonia. Labour Economics, 9(5), 601-630. doi.org/10.1016/S0927-5371(02)00048-9
10. Fabrizi, E., Mussida, C. (2009). The determinants of labour market transitions. Giornale Degli Economisti e Annali Di Economia, 68 (Anno 122)(2), 233-265.
11. Lehmann, H., Razzolini, T., & Zaiceva, A. (2015). Worker flows and labour market adjustment during the Great Recession: evidence from a large shock. IZA Discussion Paper, 9588. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2713750
12. Gangl, M. (2003). Unemployment dynamics in The United States and West Germany: economic restructuring, institutions and labor market processes. Physica-Springer. doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-57334-7_5
13. Haltiwanger, J., Vodopivec, M. (2003). Worker flows, job flows, and firm wage policies, an analysis of Slovenia. Economics of Transition, 11(2), 253-290. doi.org/10.1111/1468-0351.00147
14. Yashiv, E. (2007). U.S. labor market dynamics revisited. CEP Discussion Paper, 831. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.947519
15. Finegan, A., Peñaloza, R.V., & Shintani, M. (2008). Reassessing cyclical changes in workers' labor market status: gross flows and the types of workers who determine them. ILR Review, 61(2), 244-257. doi.org/10.1177/001979390806100206
16. Fontaine, I. (2016). French unemployment dynamics: a “three-state” approach. Revue d'économie Politique, 126(5), 835-869. doi.org/10.3917/redp.265.0835
17. Bellmann, L., Estrin, S., Lehmann, H., & Wadsworth, J. (1995). The Eastern German labor market in transition: gross flow estimates from panel data. Journal of Comparative Economics, 20(2), 139-170. doi.org/10.1006/jcec.1995.1007
18. Shorrocks, A.F. (1978). The measurement of mobility. Econometrica, 46(5), 1013-1024.doi.org/10.2307/1911433
19. Fujita, S., Ramey, G. (2007). The cyclicality of separation and job finding rates. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Working Papers, 07-19. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1015276
20. Shimer, R. (2007). Reassessing the ins and outs of unemployment / National Bureau of Economic Research. doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2012.02.001
21. Elsby, M.W.L., Smith, J.C. & Wadsworth, J. (2011). The role of worker flows in the dynamics and distribution of UK unemployment. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 27(2), 338-363. doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grr014
22. Petrongolo, B., Pissarides, C.A. (2008). The ins and outs of European unemployment. American Economic Review, 98(2), 256-262. doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.2.256
23. Dixon, R., Freebairn, J. & Lim, G.C. (2011, February). Net flows in the U.S. labor market, 1990–2010. Monthly Labor Review, 25-32.
24. Flek, V., Mysíková, M. (2015). Unemployment dynamics in Central Europe: A labour flow approach. Prague Economic Papers, 24(1), 73-87.doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.501
25. Flek, V., Mysíková, M. (2016) Youth transitions and labour market flows – who moves & how? STYLE Working Papers, 5.2.
26. The unemployed will be involved in the "Army of Restoration" of Ukraine - Yu. Sviridenko (2022, October, 25). Retrieved from www.me.gov.ua/News/Detail?lang=uk-UA&id=1455dd6f-3083-4891-af96-00ed9c7c497a&title=Bezrobitni [in Ukrainian].
Events calendar
| M | T | W | T | F | S | S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
| 30 | ||||||
