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№ 1/2020
BUBLYK Yevhen Oleksandrovych 1
1State Institution “Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine“
The interaction of financial openness and economic growth
Economy and forecasting 2020; 1:124-138 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2020.01.124 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article summarizes current approaches to the theoretical substantiation of the effects of financial openness on emerging economies. The empirical data on the verifying financial openness effects, in particular the promotion of capital inflows into emerging economies and their productive development in the context of globalization processes, are analyzed. An attempt has been made to identify the influence of the interest rate factor on the direction of the redistribution of international capital flows. Generalized the patterns of the distribution of capital movement instruments depending on the level of development of financial institutions and signs of the capital flows' strong deformation impact on financial markets with underdeveloped institutional environment.
As a result of the analysis, it was found that under the conditions of the "new normality", characterized by an increase in the volume of free movement of volatile capital flows, an increase in the level of financial openness, contrary to theoretical provisions, does not directly cause the inflow of foreign capital. At the same time, attracting foreign capital on a free, unregulated basis has a limited impact on economic development and mainly finances only the existing, well-functioning, high-yield markets and industries. Contemporary realities and the approach to the evaluation of foreign direct investment as the most effective and less volatile instruments of attracting foreign capital do not correspond to the current state of things. In today's context, only a small part of the FDI arrive into the real sector, while the bulk of them are localized in high-yield segments of the financial markets and used for tax evasion.
The lack of direct dependence of international capital flows on the spread of capital yields and the level of financial openness leads to the conclusion that, in addition to the classical factors, the drivers of foreign capital inflow include positive economic dynamics of the recipient country and presence of high-yield markets. At the same time, signs of sustainable economic growth or recession by themselves encourage capital inflow or outflow from the country. At the same time, the presence of a developed financial sector reduces the risks of instability and increases the investment component of financial openness. These conditions form an inverse relationship between macroeconomic dynamics, the level of development of the institutional environment and the change in the level of real financial openness of the economy.
Keywords:economic growth, investments, capital flows, financial openness, financial sector
JEL: E 58, F 31
Article in English (pp. 124 - 138) | Download | Downloads :362 |
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№ 2/2022
BUBLYK Yevhen Oleksandrovych 1, BRUS Svitlana Ivanivna2, SHPANEL-YUKHTA Oleksii Ihorovych3
1State Institution “Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine“
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
3State Institution "Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine"
PROSPECTS AND OBSTACLES TO THE RESTRUCTURING OF UKRAINE’S EXTERNAL STATE OBLIGATIONS IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR
Economy and forecasting 2022; 2:5-24 | https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2022.02.005 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article analyzes the structure of Ukraine’s external debt liabilities for the period from 2011 to 2021 and in the period since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. It is determined that the amount of state external liabilities, taking into account projected data, may exceed 70% of this country’s GDP, which will become the dominant form of both attracting financial resources to the state budget and threatening the state security.
The authors provide an assessment of the difficulties of restructuring the external debt in terms of the specific weight of the creditor and the weight of short-term payments for the period 2022-2023. It is concluded that at the beginning of 2022, the largest specific weight in the structure of external liabilities was the debt for issued securities for foreign markets and liabilities to international financial organizations and the EU. The main payments for them fall on the third quarters of 2022 and 2023 (3.0 and 3.6 billion USD, respectively), and the payment of interest accounts for 30% of total.
The article considers possible mechanisms of write-off and restructuring of the state's external debts, taking into account international experience and with regard to the crises and military conflicts. The following mechanisms for write-off and restructuring of foreign debt are analyzed: Brady Plan for debt restructuring of developing countries; and debt relief programs for the poorest countries - HIPC (heavily indebted poor countries) and MDRI (The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative).
The authors identify the guidelines of work on minimizing Ukraine's external liabilities in 2022-2023. A conclusion is made regarding the initiation of negotiations on the restructuring and write-off of the external debt burden to ease the payments on external debts, including GDP warrants. Such a task should be carried out as soon as possible before the period of the largest payments and taking into account the existing support of the governments of leading foreign countries.
Keywords:public debt, government’s external debt liabilities, GDP-warrants, restructuring and write-off of external debt, external state loans
JEL: H63
Article in English (pp. 5 - 24) | Download | Downloads :55 |
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5. Koziuk, V. (2012). The Optimal Level of Debt Burden: Global Macro-Financial Shifts and Transient Expectations. Finansy Ukrainy – Finances of Ukraine, 1, 78-93 [in Ukrainian].
6. Bohdan, T. (2020). Debt capital flows and the spread of shocks in an emerging market economy (the example of Ukraine). Zhurnal ievropejs'koi ekonomiky – Journal of European Economy, 19: 1, 123-150 [in Ukrainian].
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