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№ 2020/2

Forecasting methods and models

YASTREMSKY Oleksandr Ivanovych1, KULYK Volodymyr Vasyl'ovych2

1State research and educational institution"Academy of Financial Management”
2State research and educational institution "Academy of Financial Management”

Volatility of the structure of intersectoral relations of Ukraine\'s economy

Economy and forecasting 2020; 2:45-58https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2020.02.045


The article deals with the volatility of intersectoral flows in Ukrainian economy during 2000–2017. For this purpose, the authors construct a dynamic matrix series of direct cost coefficients in comparable detail (19 economic activities (EAs)); calculate statistical characteristics of 361 dynamics (19x19) and coefficients of direct expenses of Ukraine's intersectoral balance; and analyze the dynamics of cost indicators of Ukraine's economy (the ratio of GDP to total output, the Frobenius – Perron numbers) and those of economic activities (the Brauer – Perron numbers).
Construction of the historical series of the matrix of direct costs in comparable detail is achieved by aggregating the "input - output" tables.
Volatility is assessed using indicators of variation, relative variation, sample standard deviation, standard deviation per mean, historical volatility, and standard trend error (regression), i.e. trend volatility.
Volatility of intersectoral flows in Ukraine is significant. The maximum variation for the coefficients of direct costs for EA "Information ..." for all years of observation was 0.3144, for EA "Water Supply" - 0.3004, and for EA "Art" - 0.2673.
Derivative aggregates (Brauer-Solow numbers, relative EA cost) are also volatile. According to estimates of the standard deviation, the agrosector is the most stable, the most unstable - public administration.
Economy Ukraine has a significant margin of productivity. A sufficient Brauer-Solow condition for the productivity of the direct cost matrix is guaranteed to be satisfied for all years of observation.
Out of 361 coefficients of direct costs, time trends are recorded for 166. Among them, 91 have an upward trend, 65 - a downward trend. To fix the presence of the trend, the authors use the probability of deviation of the hypothesis about the significance of the linear dependence of the coefficients of direct costs on time.
The high cost intensity of the economy is a general economic problem of Ukraine. The ratio of GDP to total output in Ukraine is about 40%, while in developed countries, this figure is close to 60%. Reducing costs is a significant resource for economic growth in Ukraine.

Keywords:economy of Ukraine, "input - output"; tables, intersectoral balance, matrix of direct costs, volatility, the level of costs of economic activities and the national economy, Frobenius - Perron numbers

JEL: C67; C53, E 17

Article in English (pp. 45 - 58) DownloadDownloads :221